Eye on the Grapevine: Marty for Congress?

We all know how the grapevine works - put something in one end and something totally different comes out the other. With that little acknowledgement out of the way here it is... the grapevine is abuzz with a rumor that the Almighty One of the 11th floor after announcing he's going to run for U.S. Senate, which was after "exploring" the idea of running for Governor, has decided instead to run for Congress.

Yeah, that was our reaction too. We couldn't believe that anyone would try to run for more than two different offices before either election and before his current term was over. Seems crazy no? This has got to be another goofy rumor cooked up by some crackpot prankster.

Then we started to think about it... Marty's Senate bid thus far can only be characterized as a disaster.

• His announcement at Eclipse Aviation is followed almost immediately by Eclipse's own announcement of layoffs (ABQ Journal - Subscription).
• Marty announces his finance committee members only to have two of them deny all or part of his the announcement (read it here).
• Marty attends Big Bill's presidential rally to collect signatures and hang out with progressive Ds, only to be dissed by His Largeness who introduces the first top tier Democrat candidate for U.S. Senate as the MAYOR of Albuquerque.
• Marty's attempt to woo progressive bloggers over the phone falls decidedly flat (read it here and here).
• Tom Udall starts teasing Democrats with a Senate run (ABQ Journal - Subscription).
• Big Bill tells donors to "keep their powder dry" (read it here).
  
• Progressives start a draft Udall campaign complete with a website.

The only good news was that a new SurveyUSA poll had Marty beating both Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. The problem... the same company had Marty trailing both Wilson and Pearce just two weeks earlier. The wild swing in numbers had most observers discounting its accuracy before they even announced the results (read it here).

Needless to say the Marty for Senate folks already have a HUGE problem on their hands; the most obvious being Marty seems to be the candidate that even his own party doesn't want (read our take here). In our opinion, if any other well known Democrat decided to take on the Almighty Mayor the Ds would embrace them with something akin to a religious fervor.

So... What's an ambitious mayor to do? The answer and the thing that makes this rumor seem at least somewhat plausible, is to run for the House of Representatives. Right now, there are no top tier Ds running; the closest is City Councilor Martin Heinrich. The 1st Congressional District is dominated by Albuquerque; a city that has elected His Honor not once, not twice, but three times. And like the Senate, the House seat is being vacated and is therefore an "open seat" with only a Republican to beat (at least for now - Marty does seem to draw a crowd of Democratic opponents).

If the Almighty One does decide to jump ship again we see nothing but troubled waters ahead. Even though the prospect of facing only second tier Democrats may make the waters seem inviting, the very fact that his Senate bid has run into nothing but trouble with Ds coupled with the jump to yet a third prospective office won't do anything to help Marty's credibility (or fundraising efforts). He might even end up being considered a second or third tier candidate by the time the whole affair's over - especially if he loses in the primary to a single-term City Councilor.

Our advice to the Napoleon of the 11th floor (not that he'd listen to us) is to keep this rumor a rumor and if it's a trial balloon... pop it. For good or ill, the race for Senate is your last stop on this political merry-go-round and would certainly spell the end of your political future if you try to make the jump to the House race and fail.