Eye Poll: Cook

Last week's Eye Poll was rolling along when councilor Mayer shook up her race by leaving it. At the time the incumbent held a comfortable lead over both of her opponents - a lead that evaporated following her withdrawal. In the end, Michal Cook cooked up a solid lead over his opponent and his former opponent with 50% of Eye readers support, Mayer still garnered 32%, and write-in David Green 18% in our unscientific poll (view it here).

This week we swing our attention to the District 9 race between incumbent Don Harris and challenger David Barbour. Hopefully, no one else will fall out of the remaining races or we won't have anything to talk about. Don't forget to vote and you might want to hurry!

Mayer Out

The topsy turvy world of politics continues to amaze us. We just got confirmation from our Eyes that as 770KKOB reported earlier today, Councilor Sally Mayer is dropping out of the race for District 7 council. The departure leaves an almost unobstructed path for Michael Cook to take the District 7 chair.

Rumor has it that Mayer could even be leaving before her term is complete which would pave the way for Mayor Chavez to fill the seat until December. Either way with only one name on the October ballot and the only other candidate - David Green - a write-in candidate, it looks like Michael Cook will be the next councilor from District 7.

----- Update -----
770 KKOB reporter Peter St. Cyr is reporting that Councilor Mayer will be staying through the end of her term. The move takes away the potential for a temporary replacement to be selected by The Almighty Alcalde.

Eye Poll: Benton Blowout

In what can only be termed a blowout, City Council Commissar Isaac Benton scored a decisive victory over County Commissioner Alan Armijo. In our unscientific poll Councilor Isaac Benton received 65% of Eye readers support while Alan Armijo ran 30 points behind with 35% (view it here).

What we originally believed to be a close contest looks to be leaning heavily toward the incumbent councilor. Of course these numbers are unscientific, but no campaign likes to be 30 points behind in any poll. When you add these numbers to the fact that the Armijo campaign has been next to silent since qualifying for the ballot, the October election very well could be a Benton blowout.

This week we take a look at what had been a sleepy little race that looked to be a rerun of the 2005 district 7 council race. That is until one of the candidates - David Green - failed to file his Declaration of Candidacy last Tuesday. That failure changed the entire dynamic of a race that our Eyes told us was leaning toward incumbent Sally Mayer. Will the incumbent solidify her position? Will challenger Cook make in-roads with Green voters? Will the Green campaign wage a successful write-in challenge? All questions to be answered in this week's Eye Poll! Don't forget to vote!

Gotcha! Green Gone

There are no fewer than 19 deadlines in a typical Albuquerque City Council race. Each deadline has its own set of requirements and may or may not apply to every candidate in a specific race. One of the more arcane - and perhaps ridiculous - requirements is a candidate's Declaration of Candidacy.

The Declaration of Candidacy is usually due sometime in mid-August. By that time council candidates have already qualified for public financing (or not), met with the city clerk, attended classes on campaign reporting, collected nominating petition signatures, and filled out or filed a whole host of other forms. Missing most of the deadlines might result in an automatic ethics violation or - in the case of public financing - taxpayer money might be denied a candidate, usually the prospective councilor is allowed to continue in the race.

There are only two deadlines that result in a candidate not being printed on the official ballot - failing to submit enough signatures for ballot qualification and failing to file the Declaration of Candidacy form with the City Clerk between the hours of 8am and 5pm on the proscribed day. That day, in this election cycle was yesterday, August 11th - it's a day that District 7 hopeful David Green isn't likely to forget because that's the day he fell off the city council ballot.

Failure to file the Declaration of Candidacy doesn't technically end a council candidacy, but it does mean that they will not appear on the printed ballot. A qualified candidate can opt to run a write-in campaign, but must file to do so by August 25th.

David Green is a first time unknown candidate. It's highly unlikely that he would be able to run a successful write-in candidacy. His failure to file yesterday effectively ends his bid to unseat incumbent Sally Mayer.

You would probably guess that both of the remaining candidates for the District 7 seat would be happy to see their mutual rival gone. In this case, the enemy of my enemy isn't my friend.

Green - a Democrat - would likely appeal to anti-Mayer Ds. By falling out of the race those Ds will be looking for somewhere to go. Their logical new home would be over at Michael Cook's place. That is of course, if they don't just stay home.

The publicly financed Cook campaign should have the money to lure the anti-incumbent vote to their cause. The question is will the Republican Cook be able to build a coalition of anti-Mayer votes (Rs & Ds) and still attract enough Democrats to tip the race in his favor.

Until recently, we thought that the D7 race was a bit of a snoozer. A three-way race favors the incumbent by lowering the threshold of victory and watering down the vote. A two-way race
makes a runoff impossible and gives the challenger more of an opportunity to make his case.

In the final analysis, incumbents have a huge advantage over their challengers. In a multi-person race, that advantage is multiplied. Unless Michael Cook finds and convinces voters in District 7 that incumbent Sally Mayer needs to be fired, Mayer will continue to hold her council seat.