There really weren't any big surprises in last week's Eye Poll. Sheriff Darren White ran away in the voting for the GOP nomination to the congressional race by almost 20 points. The only real surprise was that it was inside 20%. The Journal's poll of likely Republican voters put the spread at 59 points (ABQ Journal - Subscription).
In our unscientific Eye Poll of anyone that chose to participate, 31% chose Senator Carraro, 48% Sheriff White, 1% didn't know, and 20% didn't care (read the full results here). We're a little concerned about the high number of participants indicating a lack of interest, but that could be an indication of participating Democrats who just want to beat a Republican no matter who they are.
Our guess is that Tuesday's primary will result in Sheriff White becoming the Republican nominee. The Sheriff is a formidable candidate with considerable fund raising ability and huge name ID. Unlike the Senate race, Democrats do not have a candidate with same favorables and they've been spending their cash fighting each other during the primary race.
If you haven't already done so, don't forget to vote in the primary this coming Tuesday!
Showing posts with label Joe Carraro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joe Carraro. Show all posts
Jun 1, 2008
May 19, 2008
Torpedoing a Sinking Ship
State Senator Joe Carraro's campaign has been bailing water since it set sail last year. The vocal Carraro started the race with a sizable hole in his campaign ship when he failed to get the necessary 20% of the votes at the Republican State Convention. Undaunted by the water around his knees Carraro pressed on qualifying for the ballot by submitting additional petition signatures.
According to the story, Carraro had the sense to include contract language making it clear that there could never be a "real or perceived conflict of interest."
For a candidate running on a platform of "experience" this major screw-up shows an astonishing lack of understanding of politics and the media.
Folks, that's a very large political torpedo. For $40,000 he created a public perception that will take a million dollars and weeks of spending it to dispel - neither of which he has. After 20 years in office, Carraro should have known that and never signed a contract that created a perceived or real conflict of interest. Ironically, it was Carraro himself that created the torpedo that will finally sink his congressional ship.
(Sidebar)Today, the Albuquerque Journal fired what could only be called a devastating torpedo at an already sinking ship. The story (ABQ Journal - Subscription) linked Senator Carraro to a company called Real Turf. Apparently, Carraro was hired as a "business consultant" for a business that did work for state governments and relied upon state appropriations.
For any of you aspiring candidates, it's not a good sign when less than 20% of party activists vote for you in a two-way race. That coupled with relatively low name ID should have been an indication that it was time to look for a life raft not additional petition signatures. Determination can only carry so far... unless you can write million dollar checks to patch the holes in your campaign hull.
(End Sidebar)
According to the story, Carraro had the sense to include contract language making it clear that there could never be a "real or perceived conflict of interest."
"There can never be a real or perceived conflict of interest regarding my positions as a state senator and president of Public Perceptions," he said, adding:We really don't know whether or not Senator Carraro used his position as a state senator to benefit Real Turf. In fact, we'd be hesitant to hire Carraro's company Public Perceptions, because Real Turf went bankrupt after using his consulting services. Our problem is that the senator knew that there could be a perceived conflict of interest as evidenced by the inclusion of the language in his company's contract but he went ahead anyway earning some $40,000 over an eight month period until Real Turf stopped paying him.
"Specifically, it should be noted that recommendations of your product to governmental entities given prior to this contract ... in no way bound you to the employment of Public Perceptions."
For a candidate running on a platform of "experience" this major screw-up shows an astonishing lack of understanding of politics and the media.
After twenty years serving as your State Senator, I bring experience and knowledge of issues to represent The People, not the special interests of political parties, government or big business.Regardless of whether the senator actually did anything wrong or not, the public perception is that he did because he was in a position to do so. By working for Real Turf Carraro managed to create the perception that he works for the very special interests that he claims not to represent and that he's for hire.
Folks, that's a very large political torpedo. For $40,000 he created a public perception that will take a million dollars and weeks of spending it to dispel - neither of which he has. After 20 years in office, Carraro should have known that and never signed a contract that created a perceived or real conflict of interest. Ironically, it was Carraro himself that created the torpedo that will finally sink his congressional ship.
Nov 27, 2007
Carraro Push Poll?
As you probably know by now, State Senator Joe Carraro has decided to run for Congress challenging Sheriff Darren White for the Republican nomination. The electrons had hardly dried over at Heath Haussamen's blog announcing the impending announcement when someone hit the phones with a Carraro push poll.
Senator Carraro's emphasis on legislative accomplishment could come back to haunt him. The very thing that the senator likes to tout is the very thing that he won't be able to lay a glove on the Sheriff about. In other words, Carraro has but one punch and he's already taken it; and before he's even announced.
Now we can't prove that Carraro is responsible for the push poll, but unless his mother is investing in her son's political future, there aren't many other independent groups that would be trying to push a Carraro candidacy. One other thing that State Senator Carraro might want to consider; since a seat in Congress is a federal position the race falls under the jurisdiction of the Federal Election Commission.
Our Eyes tell us that the push poll making the rounds Tuesday night didn't have the federally mandated disclosure identifying who paid for the announcement. We do know that the caller ID indicated Buffalo New York as originating city for the call. We also know that financial records are almost impossible to get destroy. Perhaps the Carraro folks should brush up on their federal election regulations before jumping in too deep.
(Sidebar)According to our Eyes ears, the "poll" talks about how experienced the State Senator is and makes absolutely sure that you know that his rival for the R nomination has never held a "legislative" office while touting his own "legislative" accomplishments. Yeah... we know it's pretty ham-fisted but some people fall for it.
Is it just us or are you as tired as we are of the announcement to announce the announcement thing that seems to be gaining popularity with New Mexico politicians (Tom Udall you know who you are). Come on! Are you running or just announcing?! Get it over with already!
(End Sidebar)
Senator Carraro's emphasis on legislative accomplishment could come back to haunt him. The very thing that the senator likes to tout is the very thing that he won't be able to lay a glove on the Sheriff about. In other words, Carraro has but one punch and he's already taken it; and before he's even announced.
Now we can't prove that Carraro is responsible for the push poll, but unless his mother is investing in her son's political future, there aren't many other independent groups that would be trying to push a Carraro candidacy. One other thing that State Senator Carraro might want to consider; since a seat in Congress is a federal position the race falls under the jurisdiction of the Federal Election Commission.
Our Eyes tell us that the push poll making the rounds Tuesday night didn't have the federally mandated disclosure identifying who paid for the announcement. We do know that the caller ID indicated Buffalo New York as originating city for the call. We also know that financial records are almost impossible to get destroy. Perhaps the Carraro folks should brush up on their federal election regulations before jumping in too deep.
Nov 8, 2007
More Toe Dipping
State Senator Joe Carraro has decided to join the Republicans Janice Arnold-Jones and Mark Boitano in the very shallow end of the First Congressional District pool by forming an exploratory committee. Currently, Sheriff Darren White is the only Republican to take the plunge and announce his candidacy for the seat being vacated by Congresswoman Heather Wilson.
Early polling has Sheriff White well ahead of his toe dipping Republican competition leading the closest (Carraro) by 55 percentage points among Rs. In all fairness, the poll was released by the White campaign; who probably wouldn't have released the poll if the numbers were not heavily in their favor. However, our Eyes tell us that Public Opinion Strategies has a very good reputation and generally manages to hit the mark within a point or so (read the poll here).
Look, the opportunity to run for an open seat doesn't come around very often and we understand why there are so many toe dippers circling the shallow end of the pool. Our problem is that we understand that Arnold-Jones is circulating both her state house petition and a U.S. House petition, and Carraro certainly isn't mentioning that he'll be giving up his state senate seat to run for Congress.
We don't believe that this is a time for trial balloons or testing the water. Either get in or get out; sink or swim. You can't have it both ways and be taken seriously even if there's a real danger of ending up in over your head.
-----Update-----
Representative Arnold-Jones contacted us today to let us know that she has not started circulating petitions for either office (State Rep. or Congress) and that she has only formed an exploratory committee. She writes that once she makes her decision, she will be running for only one of the two seats and for the very reason that we listed above.
Early polling has Sheriff White well ahead of his toe dipping Republican competition leading the closest (Carraro) by 55 percentage points among Rs. In all fairness, the poll was released by the White campaign; who probably wouldn't have released the poll if the numbers were not heavily in their favor. However, our Eyes tell us that Public Opinion Strategies has a very good reputation and generally manages to hit the mark within a point or so (read the poll here).
Look, the opportunity to run for an open seat doesn't come around very often and we understand why there are so many toe dippers circling the shallow end of the pool. Our problem is that we understand that Arnold-Jones is circulating both her state house petition and a U.S. House petition, and Carraro certainly isn't mentioning that he'll be giving up his state senate seat to run for Congress.
We don't believe that this is a time for trial balloons or testing the water. Either get in or get out; sink or swim. You can't have it both ways and be taken seriously even if there's a real danger of ending up in over your head.
-----Update-----
Representative Arnold-Jones contacted us today to let us know that she has not started circulating petitions for either office (State Rep. or Congress) and that she has only formed an exploratory committee. She writes that once she makes her decision, she will be running for only one of the two seats and for the very reason that we listed above.
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