Our first post financing poll is complete and the results are conclusive. R.J. Berry is the favorite taking 44% of the vote. Mayor Chavez took the runner up position with 29% of the vote, Richard Romero received 21%, and just 6% didn't know (see the results here).
We've long suspected that Marty fatigue has begun to set in despite Joe Monahan's attempt to bolster the mayoral image by releasing an "insider" poll - no doubt fed to him by the Chavez camp - that he originally reported as being "over 40 percent." On Friday, Monahan conceded that the number was just 41% just barely over the magic number needed to stave off a runoff.
While the Chavez poll showed the mayor with enough to win, the election is still 6 months off and it has to concern the Chavez camp that the Almighty Alcalde isn't holding a more commanding lead. As the campaign develops it's most likely that Marty's numbers will slide as the other two campaigns take aim at the incumbent.
Adding to Marty's downward pressure is the specter of yet another pay-to-play scheme involving Bode Aviation. KOAT TV is reporting that Councilor Michael Cadigan has been interviewed by the FBI about the alleged attempt by the Chavez senatorial campaign to strong-arm Bode into providing free services for the campaign.
Like Marty's former in-law Many Aragon, the investigation is apparently the result of a pair of civil suits filed by Bode. In the end it may not matter whether or not the feds ever bring charges, the shadow of corruption could dim the mayor's public image to make him vulnerable to his challengers.
In the end, will Republicans and Independents leave Marty for Berry and will the two Democrats slug it out for the Ds? If they do, chances are good that October's result will look very similar to our Eye Poll.
----- Update -----
There have been a couple of comments/questions on how the Eye Poll works. First of all... relax. Internet polls are by definition unscientific and they are certainly subject to being "pushed." In fact, the Eye Poll has been the target of a mayoral get out the vote effort in the past (read it here).
The truth is that polls of this type are not very accurate, but can be useful for spotting trends. Can the Eye Poll be pushed? Sure. But it's fun to participate and fun to see the results.
The Piercing Truth
This is right from the dictionary and seems to describe Albuquerque, Berry and Schultz. Fascism (f ash ,izem) noun An authoritarian right wing system of government and/or social organization. (in general use) extreme right wing, authoritarian, chauvinistic and/or intolerant views or practices. Fascism tends to include a belief in the supremacy of one group over another, national, ethnic, especially social strata or monetarily; a contempt for democracy, an insistence on obedience to a powerful leader, and a strong demagogic approach. Compliments of one of our Eyes