Our first post financing poll is complete and the results are conclusive. R.J. Berry is the favorite taking 44% of the vote. Mayor Chavez took the runner up position with 29% of the vote, Richard Romero received 21%, and just 6% didn't know (see the results here).
We've long suspected that Marty fatigue has begun to set in despite Joe Monahan's attempt to bolster the mayoral image by releasing an "insider" poll - no doubt fed to him by the Chavez camp - that he originally reported as being "over 40 percent." On Friday, Monahan conceded that the number was just 41% just barely over the magic number needed to stave off a runoff.
While the Chavez poll showed the mayor with enough to win, the election is still 6 months off and it has to concern the Chavez camp that the Almighty Alcalde isn't holding a more commanding lead. As the campaign develops it's most likely that Marty's numbers will slide as the other two campaigns take aim at the incumbent.
Adding to Marty's downward pressure is the specter of yet another pay-to-play scheme involving Bode Aviation. KOAT TV is reporting that Councilor Michael Cadigan has been interviewed by the FBI about the alleged attempt by the Chavez senatorial campaign to strong-arm Bode into providing free services for the campaign.
Like Marty's former in-law Many Aragon, the investigation is apparently the result of a pair of civil suits filed by Bode. In the end it may not matter whether or not the feds ever bring charges, the shadow of corruption could dim the mayor's public image to make him vulnerable to his challengers.
In the end, will Republicans and Independents leave Marty for Berry and will the two Democrats slug it out for the Ds? If they do, chances are good that October's result will look very similar to our Eye Poll.
----- Update -----
There have been a couple of comments/questions on how the Eye Poll works. First of all... relax. Internet polls are by definition unscientific and they are certainly subject to being "pushed." In fact, the Eye Poll has been the target of a mayoral get out the vote effort in the past (read it here).
The truth is that polls of this type are not very accurate, but can be useful for spotting trends. Can the Eye Poll be pushed? Sure. But it's fun to participate and fun to see the results.
12 comments:
If Berry is to have a chance he needs to get down, and dirty with just the facts of Marty time as Mayor i.e. (Taxes, spending, double dipping, APD's bumblings, crime, etc.).
Marty will want everyone involved to agree to run a clean, and non negative campaign of course.
Marty has not announced yet because he can avoid this UNTIL he does officially announce.
The City Deficit, is gonna hurt him more than he thinks this time around.
Marty will fire a bunch of brass and them blame everything on them -- just like before
I think the FBI investigation might shed some light on the way Smarty conducts business.
About your poll. Is it possible to vote for a candidate more than once? I hit the button for my favorite candidate each day last week. Was it counted as 1 vote or 5 votes? Thanks.
Quite frankly, Marty should watch out. Yes, FBI investigation interesting.
More than that, however, small groups have popped up over the city as people are networking as a result of last week's tea party.
Hopefully the larger group will vote en mass at the smaller, local level to get rid of the corrupt mayor and his ilk. We can only hope.
The FBI is taking no interest in this Bode whining issue, Cadigan is mad because he and you all know Marty will win.. Whether you like him or not, he has done a great job for the city as a whole.
Someone should investigate Berry for ripping off taxpayers by claiming his business is "Hispanic owned".
For anyone who says the rip-off is OK because his wife is Hispanic, what a bunch of political bullshit!
If he'll lie about something like that, he'll lie about anything.
April 21st 6pm post "About your poll" ...well played. I heart you.
Again, how accurate is this poll? I can hit it many times for my favorite candidate who shall remain nameless because that is beside the point.
My point is: Can you vote multiple times on this poll and is it counted EACH TIME?
If so, this poll is BOGUS.
Nick Bakas will screw up again for Marty, there will be plenty of negative material for the others. Just wait, more to come
Has this town not had enough of one Martin Chavez. I for one think it is time for him to find another line of work. Term limits are good as they help reduce corruption.
As for Berry, he is just a Republican that the party found to run for the job much like our past Republican candidates. I don't think his heart is in it.
Very tiring Smarty is .... the city deficit, the corruption (double dipping, pay to play). His name is the most recognized .... as was D.C. Mayor Marion Berry however they were both VERY bad for their city!
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