Last week's Eye Poll started out with R.J. Berry holding a significant lead over the incumbent Alcalde. By the end of the week, Marty moved to within one vote of the leader. In our unscientific Eye Poll Berry and Chavez both sat at 39% with Berry holding a 1 vote lead. Meanwhile the other challenger Richard Romero, rounded out the poll with 23% of the vote (view it here).
Historically speaking, it's not above supporters of The Almighty Alcalde to push a poll. In fact, we've had it happen before (read it here). In this case, we don't have any evidence of 11th Floor tampering but we wouldn't be shocked if it occurred. We're quite sure that Marty and his minions are more than a little sensitive about any poll these days.
In case you missed it... The Sunday Journal featured an above the fold story on the most recent Sanderoff poll that showed R.J. Berry leading in this year's mayoral derby by 6 points with 31% of the vote. Chavez followed Berry with 26% followed closely by Romero at 24%. 19% of respondents in the Journal poll were undecided and the margin of error was a rather large plus or minus 5 points (ABQ Journal Subscription).
The fact is that despite the Journal headline - "Berry Has Slim Lead Over Chávez, Romero, With Days To Go" - R.J. Berry is that at worst leading Chavez and Romero by 1 and 2 points respectively. On the other hand, Berry could be leading Chavez by as much as 11 points.
There are a healthy number of undecided voters - in this case 19%. If the undecideds break hard for either Chavez or Romero, Berry could see his lead evaporate quickly. However, it looks as if the majority of undecided voters come from the NE Heights - traditionally a Republican stronghold and the wellspring of Marty's past victories.
Meanwhile, Romero is drawing Hispanic votes and Democrats (particularly liberal Democrats) away from The Almighty Alcalde.
None of this is particularly surprising. Politics is often situational. From the beginning, the situation favored R.J Berry - a Republican - since Democrats Chavez and Romero would tend to split the D vote.
In the end it will come down to turnout. Romero with the backing of the Eli Lee machine will effectively get their vote out. Marty will work his city hall machine between now and the election to make sure that every employee both votes and knows that their career is in his hands.
But in the end, the election will be decided by Republicans - many of whom have faithfully if misguidedly supported The Almighty Alcalde in the past. For the first time in a long time, Marty is being squeezed making him - in a statistical sense more than in a political one - Marty in the Middle. If independents break hard for Berry, Albuquerque's unemployment rate will go up by one.
31 comments:
I can almost hear the desperation in Marty Farty's voice.... if a Commercial business explains to Marty Farty that their business name, image, logo can't be used in conjunction with Martin Chavez campagin for re-election, then hear is the deluded rhetoric from the Martin Chavez camp... something like, "Oh, if RJ Berry and Martin Chavez" have a run-off, then the Romero voters will vote for who? Gee, I will be Mayor again because combining votes between two Democrats."
Well, last week's Eye Poll had RJ Berry in the lead at 32% to 45% as
RJ Berry decreased in votes, the other candidate, Romero, increased in votes. That says, that if there were a run-off between RJ Berry and Martin Chavez that Romero's voters most likely would vote for RJ Berry being against Marty Farty.
So, let's get the run-off between RJ Berry and Romero. In the Journal Poll, Romero came in close behind Marty Farty, but the Channel 4 Poll had Romero the predicted winner at 52%!
Go Romero! Go RJ Berry!
Anybody but Farty Marty!
Go Romero! Go RJ Berry! Let's get the run-off between Romero and RJ Berry!
Joannie will be in full frontle attack mode this week.
The "It's Just Lunch" girls will be out in full force on every street corner wearing "Marty for Mayor" t-shirts,mini skirts and high heels, whether they're working or not.
Cost to the taxpayers; PRICELESS !
Marty Farty is sending out vibes to get either the Romero campaign or the RJ Berry campagin to attack each other. Don't let that happen!
RJ Berry and Romero work well together and together can unite (more so) and defeat Marty Farty!
Go Romero! Go RJ Berry!
Campaign Strategy for Romero and RJ Berry if your reading this blog and comments, then both of your campaign staff could mail out a mailer that has both your pictures with the two of you shaking hands. That would prevent Marty Farty from being in any run-off election and increase the chance to have the two of you in the run off election.
Ok..... RJ Berry... if your in the run-off with Martin Chavez, then the way to keep appealing to the Romero voters is to unite and keep united with the Romero campaign! That gives you the edge and Romero the edge in case he needs to attract your voters if he is in the run-off with Marty Farty! People like how the two campaigns have united against Marty Farty, so that makes your chances increased to collect each others voters in case either one of you are in a run-off against Marty Farty. If you find yourself in a run-off against each other, then people will have a great Mayor whoever the two of you wins!
Marty Farty is trying to attract the male voter who like himself was the victim of duplicity. Grow up and put some pants on Marty Farty! Let's find some men and vote those men into office that can actually regulate dating services! (Craig's list, It's Just lunch... etc....)
Anybody but Marty Farty for Mayor!
Tarty Marty (have you found your pants, yet?) Low values and low morals!
Anybody but Farty Marty for Mayor!
Know this Berry and Romero.... this week both campaigns will be tested by the Farty Marty campaign staff attempting to weaken your combined uniting of forces... for example, you might get the vibe of
something like, "Well, start attacking one another now... because that means that the two of you will be in the run-off." This mentality resembles that of a female who doesn't look good in a miniskirt wanting to make another female who does look good in a miniskirt feel inferior by saying, "oh, don't wear that..... that is too much."
Marty Farty can't unite with RJ Berry or Romero, so by trying to divide the two camps before October 6th, Marty Farty is hoping to get votes. Don't fall for his plot.
Come on RJ Berry and Romero send out a mailer with the two of you shaking hands.... that will echo back the words, "Marty Farty where have your pants been for the past four years?"
Remember, if the logic behind dividing your combined forces, is to get votes during a run-off if Marty Farty is in a run-off. That logic is similiar to how a female behind the counter at an ice cream parlor always gives more ice cream to the skinny females and deliberately gives less ice cream to the chubby overweight girls. This is a competition people!
Romero and Berry just need to show that they can and will work with people in a transparent honest manner.
Highlight more the issues Monahan stated on his blog “the Chavez personality and the Chavez dark side explored in those Bode surveillance tapes spread on the Net."
The "Chavez Dark Side” everyone has known or heard about it for years. Now it's coming out !!! Caught on tape just like Blogo, Daily and who was the guy smoking crack in DC? ,,,, Yep - Another corrupt Politian
Everyone should thank Nick (The Greek) and the other Chavez thug for being so honest and candid on those video tapes. They showed the “Chavez Dark side" for what it is. That maybe why Villanucci kept calling Bakas - Nick the “Bagman”.
Come on everyone – We all know this probably isn’t the first time Bakas made this speech for Chavez. Look at the ABQ PAC Scandal – Chavez was sanctioned for ethics violations,,, Bakas was involved then also.
Berry and Romero just need to stay focused on hitting Chavez on the issue of corruption. We all know it is real and now it is out in the open. Just go watch youtube.
Berry and Romero – stay honest and stay focused.
Chavez can’t and won’t be able to play in that league no matter what Joannie offers to do for him.
Currently, there is an agreement amongest APD Officers that the Sanctuary rule/law has got to go! The need to investigate claims about Joannie Griffith and ties to the Mayor in shaping his local policies stems from the APD to get rid of the Sanctuary rule/policy!
How can I help?
To the Campaign Staffers reading this blog: Now, is the time for Romero and RJ Berry to meet with Joey Sigala from APOA to assure the APOA that new change would be to end the Sanctuary City status and give APD Officers back their right to do their job without being perceived as being unable to do their job without a Sanctuary Rule.
Who would Kelly Ripa endorse for Mayor? I'm guessing........?
Vote RJ Berry or Romero!
In 2007, the FBI received an annoymous tip of a Russian ring entering the U.S. illegally and obtaining documentation to stay in the U.S. The Russian network, with "Nadia" was broken up and last I heard was in Federal court.
Given the fact that the Sanctuary rule/law makes no logically sense whatsoever, it is more likely than not for Marty Farty to have been influenced to not take legal action against the Sanctuary law/rule in court because of an illegal immigrant operative operating in the U.S. using dating services to gain access to gain the ear of political leaders to change, amend, adopt rules and changes to make Albuquerque more Illegal Immigrant friendly.
THe Journals polls have never been realistic. Berry needs to be careful not to let his energy and motion slow down. Chavez is a career politician, and will come back if given a chance. I see Berry and Chavez in the run off. Romero is a liberal tirant like Obama and people are already sicl of him. Berry needs to win in run off.
This was posted on KOB's comment section after the debate:
This is a list of some of marty's cheerleaders at the debate.
ed adams-cao, pete "THE SNAKE dinelli, debra james, robert ortega-fire chief and a few fireman, greg payne, pat miller, jay evans, jay hart, ken sanchez, nick bakas, ray darnell and many other staffers from the mayor's office and various city departments.
I am practically forced to work on this campaign. I am one of those that so-called volunteers that doesn't really want to work for this snake. I am scared not to work for this man because my job could depend on it. No, I am not appointed by the mayor but one of his directors like all of them have to do, ASKED me to work. I was sitting with the marty crew but I am disgusted the way they operate behind the scenes. He is such a dictator. He was mad after the debate. He was the one making us text our vote in for him and having us call everyone we know to text also. PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE vote him out. Him and most of his staff are horrible, mean, arrogant people. Some of the staff used to be nice but they have turned like him. He knows he lost last nights debate and he is worried.
To all you employees that are sacred like me, remember he won't know who you vote for behind the curtain. Vote for any other candidate on election day. We need this dictator out. He is a very mean man. I can't believe how he can fake a smile for so long. But he's a pro in front of the camera. I wish people really knew how mean and awful this mayor really is. Now I have an idea why his wife left him.
It's shocking how many employees are scared of this man.
That campaign mangaer of his also runs his headquarters like he does like a dictator. I can hardly wait for this to be over.
Some points:
Classified vs. non-classified. Many changes have been made, classified new positions ‘open’, which a current nonclassified employee got. Then the old non-classified job disappears. I know the mayors been busy protecting his cronies the last couple years.
Employees as his campaigners. A supervisor asked an employee to lunch. "sign the petition, and I'll pay the $5" No witnesses, no way to say the mayor instigated.
Look the other way or comp time. I bet many city employees will be campaigning during work in the next week. He sent a vanload to campaign for Hillary during work, so he'll do more for himself.
Anyone undecided, PLEASE do not vote for Chavez. It is supposed to be the citizen’s city--the same one's that voted for term limits.
Joannie ??? Like she's supposed to be what, a strategist? A campaign Mgr.? The escort service will surely be doing probona business this week.
Work the phones this week for us and you can pick up your treat on the way out.
Ohhhhhhahhhhhhh! Marty Farty nickname is catching on!
Vote Romero or RJ Berry!
Clean house Berry, get city employees that are professional. Get rid of the criminals that work at the city. Start doing backround checks. Get a dress code. Make them put in 8 hours a day.
Screw the Democrats!!!! We need a Republican in office!!!!
This is it, Marty's reign will soon be over and all the snakes will crawl back in their holes! Bakass, Walsh, Castro, Schultz, all the APD man whores will be exposed. The women are getting fed up and will talk soon. You boys better hold on cuz its coming in a big way and you will not know when! And the APd union was the kiss of death! Ha ha shows just how cruupt APD is! The officers, rank and file have endured enough of this BS. Just see what the new Chief has planned for you bad boys!!
ABQ needs CHANGE!!!! Vote this current corrupt administration out! APD hates Mayor Chavez. He has threatened our raise and some of our jobs if he is not elected. What a snake.
Berry or Romero, take out an ad and put this site on a billboard. Let the Albuq voters read what the people are saying and experiencing!
That is a great idea! Ok, campaign staffers support the Eye! Take out an advertisement because this cite rocks!
Vote Romero or RJ Berry!
barboa sent email he fixes everything and he is untouchable didnt you know.
CHAVEZ OUT = SCHULTZ OUT
SCHULTZ OUT = HIGH PAID LAZY P.I.O. OUT
GET OUR 4-10S BACK AND RID OF THIS COPPERFIRE FAILURE!!!
VIVA BERRY!!!
The Sanctuary Law/rule takes away APD discretion. I believe that the APD can be trusted to have discretion in what kinds of questions APD feels important to ask the victim of a crime. If APD feels that the victim's National Origin is important enough, then I believe that the APD needs to have that discretion to ask back instead of not being allowed to ask that question.
APD can do a great job when political leaders give APD their discretion back as to what to ask a victim to a crime. For example, what if the crime involved M-17 gang victim that was a gang member here illegally that was shot by his fellow gang member? There are numerous scenarios and each case and each victim is unique, so it would be impossible to change or make amendments to the Sanctuary law/rule, so just get rid of the Sanctuary law/rule and in doing so giving the APD Officers back their discretion as to what questions need to be raised during questioning of the victim and/or offender.
Well Marty, looks as if your golden boy, Ray Schultz is going to cost you the election!
You should have cleaned up your police dept. If you can't control the cops, how can you run this city?
Vote for change.
Marty Farty shouldn't put a price on the APOA or access to government or the APD!!!
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