The dust had barely settled before the first rumors about the new Berry administration began flying. The first one - spread by none other than Joey Sigala, Segalla, Sagala - is that Ray Schultz is staying.
First of all, the sun is barely up the day after the Berry victory and our Eyes tell us that not a lot of thought has gone into the transition. The campaign's focus was on reaching and exceeding 40% - which they did last night. There simply hasn't been time to address the transition. That changes today.
Second, Ray Schultz intervened on behalf of The Almighty Alcalde in the final two weeks of the campaign using APD as a political tool. Our Eyes tell us that there was no shortage of outrage over at the Berry campaign and that Ray's neck is on the chopping block.
Look... Mayor-Elect Berry (that sure has a nice ring to it) won't meet with The Almighty Alcalde until noon today. No doubt internal discussions are underway and we'd bet that a "Thank You for your Service But it's Time to Go" list is under development. Very few people will be privy to those discussions and we're quite sure that Joey Sigala, Segalla, Sagala isn't one of them.
Oct 7, 2009
Oct 6, 2009
The Outcome
The unofficial results are in and like many of you we're pleased with the results. R.J. Berry will make a good mayor for our fair city and what's more, he earned our trust during his campaign. Richard Romero should also be proud of the campaign he ran. He's an honorable man - a commodity that is in too short a supply these days.
Our predictions weren't too bad overall (see them here). Our major miscalculation was getting carried away with the under vote. It seems we underestimated voters as they were engaged in almost every race.
On the bond issues we nailed it - all of them passed. The quarter cent tax passed as predicted and all of the charter amendments pass. The only one we thought wouldn't pass... did. Prop 2 - the salary commission amendment passed by a healthy margin.
Our biggest miscalculation was over in District 5 where Dan Lewis showed Councilor Cadigan the door with a surprising 12 point trouncing. We knew that Mr. Lewis was working hard but we didn't believe that he'd been able to move the needle as far as it turns out he had.
Congratulations Councilor-Elect Lewis. If you work half as hard at your new job as you did during your campaign, you will be an excellent councilor.
Our best pick of the night was undoubtedly the mayor's race. However, we still got our order wrong. Our predictions were R.J. Berry 41%, Richard Romero 33%, and Martin Chavez 22%. As it turns out Berry ended the night with 43.82%, Chavez with 35.02%, and Romero with 20.98%.
Apparently, Marty's last minute decision to rip into Romero paid some dividends with Democrats. However, the real story is that independents broke hard for Berry and Republicans overwhelmingly withdrew their past support for Chavez and came home to Berry.
There were hints that Marty was in trouble as far back as two years ago, when every candidate backed by or associated with Chavez... lost. The current political environment coupled with the growing Marty-fatigue hinted at in the last city election probably made tonight's result inevitable.
Marty reached 35% immediately and never budged the rest of the night. Voters seemed to flow back and forth between Berry and Romero, with Berry finding surprising strength in precincts where Romero was considered the odds on favorite. What's clear is that there's a solid 35% block of voters citywide. But what's also clear is that a solid 65% of voters wanted someone other than Martin Chavez to be mayor.
Click here to see the unofficial results.
Our predictions weren't too bad overall (see them here). Our major miscalculation was getting carried away with the under vote. It seems we underestimated voters as they were engaged in almost every race.
On the bond issues we nailed it - all of them passed. The quarter cent tax passed as predicted and all of the charter amendments pass. The only one we thought wouldn't pass... did. Prop 2 - the salary commission amendment passed by a healthy margin.
Our biggest miscalculation was over in District 5 where Dan Lewis showed Councilor Cadigan the door with a surprising 12 point trouncing. We knew that Mr. Lewis was working hard but we didn't believe that he'd been able to move the needle as far as it turns out he had.
Congratulations Councilor-Elect Lewis. If you work half as hard at your new job as you did during your campaign, you will be an excellent councilor.
Our best pick of the night was undoubtedly the mayor's race. However, we still got our order wrong. Our predictions were R.J. Berry 41%, Richard Romero 33%, and Martin Chavez 22%. As it turns out Berry ended the night with 43.82%, Chavez with 35.02%, and Romero with 20.98%.
Apparently, Marty's last minute decision to rip into Romero paid some dividends with Democrats. However, the real story is that independents broke hard for Berry and Republicans overwhelmingly withdrew their past support for Chavez and came home to Berry.
There were hints that Marty was in trouble as far back as two years ago, when every candidate backed by or associated with Chavez... lost. The current political environment coupled with the growing Marty-fatigue hinted at in the last city election probably made tonight's result inevitable.
Marty reached 35% immediately and never budged the rest of the night. Voters seemed to flow back and forth between Berry and Romero, with Berry finding surprising strength in precincts where Romero was considered the odds on favorite. What's clear is that there's a solid 35% block of voters citywide. But what's also clear is that a solid 65% of voters wanted someone other than Martin Chavez to be mayor.
Click here to see the unofficial results.
Eye Predicts
It's been a crazy month for Albuquerque political junkies. Now that the polls are closed we'll put our prognostication skills to the test.
Bond Issues, Quarter Cent and Propositions
As usual all of the bond issues will pass with ease. There simply wasn't any organized opposition to any of them and we'd be shocked if any of them even came close to defeat.
The 1/4 Cent Transportation Tax will pass - but it'll be closer than any of the bond questions (63% For, 37% Against). This thing as been on the books for 10 years and was sold to the public as necessity if the city wants to have roads, bike paths, and buses. In truth this is supplantation tax that shifts the burden to provide these transportation infrastructure needs from the existing general fund to a dedicated tax. The funds originally used for transportation infrastructure purposes become available for other non-transportation uses. Like the public safety tax, it's a tax increase wrapped in a desirable lie.
All of the charter amendment propositions will pass with the exception of Proposition 2. The general theme of the propositions is to reduce mayoral authority. Prop 2, makes it possible for an "independent" commission to set salaries for the mayor and councilors without asking for voter approval. This ain't gonna happen.
Voters have consistently rebuffed any attempt to pay councilors more. As a result, they'll reject Prop 2 for no other reason than it'll take voters out of the loop.
Proposition 8 probably shouldn't pass but it will. Prop 8 sets up the governmental equivalent of a mayor/council mediation board. This really won't work because historically fights between the mayor (and by mayor we mean The Almighty Alcalde) have involved gray areas in the city charter. Arbitration boards simply cannot make legal decisions. So... We'll have a committee that can't arbitrate because they don't have the authority to interpret the charter - which means the case will end up in court where it ought to be anyway.
District 1
Ken Sanchez - 87%
Councilor Sanchez is the only person on the ballot in District 1 - there's not even a write-in. He'll lose few points due to under votes, jokers who write-in Mickey Mouse, and a few folks who are still mad at him for helping The Almighty Alcalde.
District 3
Isaac Benton - 48%
Alan Armijo - 38%
Admittedly we haven't been watching this race all that closely, but given name ID alone Armijo should be able to make it a close race. We just don't think that there's been enough of a case made to fire the incumbent and District 3 has changed significantly since Alan Armijo last graced the council chambers as a council member.
District 5
Dan Lewis - 45%
Michael Cadigan - 48%
This is one of those that could be considered too close to call. But despite running a very good campaign, working hard and making a very good case to the voters that Cadigan should be removed - it's hard to dump an incumbent in just a few months time. Dan Lewis may not win this one, but he's shown himself to be a hard working, talented candidate. He'll be hard to beat in his next campaign.
District 7
Michael Cook - 69%
David Green (Write-in) - 5%
Green failed to turn in the required Declaration of Candidacy August, 11th. Frankly, it's almost impossible to wage a successful write-in campaign without significant funding - funding that Green didn't have.
District 9
David Barbour - 23%
Don Harris - 65%
Harris will cruise to victory in this one. Being on the ballot won't help Barbour primarily because his simply doesn't fit the district. We wouldn't at all be surprised if Councilor Harris wins by an even greater margin.
The Race for Mayor
R.J. Berry - 41%
Richard Romero - 33%
Martin J. Chavez - 22%
You won't see a large under vote in this one. This is the reason that most people are headed to the polls. Ultimately, we think Berry will reach the magic 40% and avoid a runoff. Marty will have ended up taking votes from Romero rather than the other way around - ultimately denying his fellow Romero a chance at a runoff.
So there they are... We'll see how close we got in the next few hours.
Bond Issues, Quarter Cent and Propositions
As usual all of the bond issues will pass with ease. There simply wasn't any organized opposition to any of them and we'd be shocked if any of them even came close to defeat.
The 1/4 Cent Transportation Tax will pass - but it'll be closer than any of the bond questions (63% For, 37% Against). This thing as been on the books for 10 years and was sold to the public as necessity if the city wants to have roads, bike paths, and buses. In truth this is supplantation tax that shifts the burden to provide these transportation infrastructure needs from the existing general fund to a dedicated tax. The funds originally used for transportation infrastructure purposes become available for other non-transportation uses. Like the public safety tax, it's a tax increase wrapped in a desirable lie.
All of the charter amendment propositions will pass with the exception of Proposition 2. The general theme of the propositions is to reduce mayoral authority. Prop 2, makes it possible for an "independent" commission to set salaries for the mayor and councilors without asking for voter approval. This ain't gonna happen.
Voters have consistently rebuffed any attempt to pay councilors more. As a result, they'll reject Prop 2 for no other reason than it'll take voters out of the loop.
Proposition 8 probably shouldn't pass but it will. Prop 8 sets up the governmental equivalent of a mayor/council mediation board. This really won't work because historically fights between the mayor (and by mayor we mean The Almighty Alcalde) have involved gray areas in the city charter. Arbitration boards simply cannot make legal decisions. So... We'll have a committee that can't arbitrate because they don't have the authority to interpret the charter - which means the case will end up in court where it ought to be anyway.
District 1
Ken Sanchez - 87%
Councilor Sanchez is the only person on the ballot in District 1 - there's not even a write-in. He'll lose few points due to under votes, jokers who write-in Mickey Mouse, and a few folks who are still mad at him for helping The Almighty Alcalde.
District 3
Isaac Benton - 48%
Alan Armijo - 38%
Admittedly we haven't been watching this race all that closely, but given name ID alone Armijo should be able to make it a close race. We just don't think that there's been enough of a case made to fire the incumbent and District 3 has changed significantly since Alan Armijo last graced the council chambers as a council member.
District 5
Dan Lewis - 45%
Michael Cadigan - 48%
This is one of those that could be considered too close to call. But despite running a very good campaign, working hard and making a very good case to the voters that Cadigan should be removed - it's hard to dump an incumbent in just a few months time. Dan Lewis may not win this one, but he's shown himself to be a hard working, talented candidate. He'll be hard to beat in his next campaign.
District 7
Michael Cook - 69%
David Green (Write-in) - 5%
Green failed to turn in the required Declaration of Candidacy August, 11th. Frankly, it's almost impossible to wage a successful write-in campaign without significant funding - funding that Green didn't have.
District 9
David Barbour - 23%
Don Harris - 65%
Harris will cruise to victory in this one. Being on the ballot won't help Barbour primarily because his simply doesn't fit the district. We wouldn't at all be surprised if Councilor Harris wins by an even greater margin.
The Race for Mayor
R.J. Berry - 41%
Richard Romero - 33%
Martin J. Chavez - 22%
You won't see a large under vote in this one. This is the reason that most people are headed to the polls. Ultimately, we think Berry will reach the magic 40% and avoid a runoff. Marty will have ended up taking votes from Romero rather than the other way around - ultimately denying his fellow Romero a chance at a runoff.
So there they are... We'll see how close we got in the next few hours.
Promises, Packing and Dancing with the Devil
The mood on the 11th and 5th floors has been a cross between desperation and depression. The Almighty Alcalde has been busy promising the Chief's job to any commander who will drag their officers to the polls and vote for him. Yes... that means that Marty is repaying Chief Schultz for his undying allegiance - an allegiance that extended to politicizing a police investigation - with a pink slip.
Apparently, the current holder of the 11th Floor throne is promising to fire Ray Schultz if he manages to stay in office. Our Eyes tell us that Marty blames the current state of affairs on Chief Schultz and APD.
We would take issue with that assertion and humbly suggest that the man most directly responsible for Marty's mayoral desperation is none other than The Almighty Alcalde himself. Not to say that Ray and his merry band of sycophant DCs haven't royally screwed the pooch on multiple occasions, but the Mayor of Albuquerque has direct responsibility for the actions and job performance of the Chief of Police and those the chief surrounds himself with.
Further, Marty has annexed APD as a part of his political machine - a despicable act by any mayor. The Albuquerque Police Department depends on the trust and faith placed in it by the public in order to function effectively. Martin J. Chavez has abused that trust and shaken the faith of the public by repeatedly using APD for his own personal gains.
If you happen to be one of the Commanders who have been promised the chief's job, consider for a moment how The Almighty Alcalde repays loyalty... one of his loyalists is busy packing up his office. And should Marty somehow win this contest consider this - "when you dance with the devil you don't change him, he changes you."
Apparently, the current holder of the 11th Floor throne is promising to fire Ray Schultz if he manages to stay in office. Our Eyes tell us that Marty blames the current state of affairs on Chief Schultz and APD.
We would take issue with that assertion and humbly suggest that the man most directly responsible for Marty's mayoral desperation is none other than The Almighty Alcalde himself. Not to say that Ray and his merry band of sycophant DCs haven't royally screwed the pooch on multiple occasions, but the Mayor of Albuquerque has direct responsibility for the actions and job performance of the Chief of Police and those the chief surrounds himself with.
Further, Marty has annexed APD as a part of his political machine - a despicable act by any mayor. The Albuquerque Police Department depends on the trust and faith placed in it by the public in order to function effectively. Martin J. Chavez has abused that trust and shaken the faith of the public by repeatedly using APD for his own personal gains.
If you happen to be one of the Commanders who have been promised the chief's job, consider for a moment how The Almighty Alcalde repays loyalty... one of his loyalists is busy packing up his office. And should Marty somehow win this contest consider this - "when you dance with the devil you don't change him, he changes you."
Final Election Thoughts
To say that this year's city election has been a surprise is an understatement of gargantuan proportions. Fresh off a huge November victory, Democrats rushed to run for one of the most powerful positions in the state. Michael Cadigan, Debbie O'Malley, Richard Romero, and Donna Rowe all announced their candidacies by early February. The donkey in the room was The Almighty Alcalde who had sued the city (in a sham of a proceeding) and had his own term limit overturned.
By mid-March both councilors had dropped out of the race. Albuquerque's public financing system had barred two of its most ardent supporters. O'Malley returned to her seat on the council and Cadigan - after vowing to leave city politics - decided to try to hold the seat that he'd decided to vacate in order to run for mayor which he was unable to do because of the public financing system that he'd supported (whew!).
Marty in the Middle (of everything) wouldn't announce until well into the July - a move that's still a bit baffling. The Almighty Alcalde was either incredibly arrogant or was waiting to see if there were some other opportunities to "make some money" as he indicated he would like to do on 770 KKOB's morning show with Bob Clark last Friday morning.
After Marty lowered himself to actually enter the race, the early polls were showing that Marty's numbers were in the mid 40's - meaning that if the race were held then, the Almighty Alcalde would retain his throne on the 11th floor. The flip side was that if an incumbent starts at 46%, the only direction for them to go is down.
A little over a week ago, we all found out that down is exactly where he went falling to 26% in the most recent Journal poll (Subscription). Richard Romero trailed Chavez by a razor thin margin of 2 percentage points and R.J. Berry lead by 5 points.
Prior to Labor Day, one would be hard pressed to notice that there was a mayor's race. Sure... the three major candidates were out at forums but no one who wasn't a political junkie had any idea there was a mayor's race underway.
Marty aimed his vitriol on R.J. Berry until late in the campaign when he belatedly targeted Romero. The Almighty Alcalde realized that there's a real chance that he may not even be part of a runoff unless he could pull some liberal Ds away from Romero.
That's where we stand today... election day. By now you've heard and read more than you probably want to have heard and read. We would hope that you would have formed an opinion of who you support for mayor.
Both R.J. Berry and Richard Romero have run honorable campaigns. Marty has run his campaign the way he has increasingly run the city - with half-truths, spin, and outright lies. He even blatantly used his police department for political gain.
Martin Chavez's three terms in office have been a study in the creation of a tyrant. Each year spent occupying the city's mayoral throne has made The Almighty Alcalde more arrogant, more vindictive, and more tyrannical.
We have long believed that the mayoral race will be decided by Republicans. Republicans have been responsible for each of The Almighty Alcalde's elections and so they will be responsible for the outcome of this election.
Richard Romero has been an honorable candidate but his ties to the far left Eli Lee wing of the Democratic party is more than just a little concerning and means that should he end up in a runoff with Chavez many Republicans would vote as they have in the past.
R.J. Berry is an honest man. He has run his campaign with honor and dignity - even in the face of blistering personal attacks from The Almighty Alcalde. In our opinion, Berry is the best candidate to replace the Tyrant of the 11th Floor and once again make city government of the people, by the people, and for the people.
By mid-March both councilors had dropped out of the race. Albuquerque's public financing system had barred two of its most ardent supporters. O'Malley returned to her seat on the council and Cadigan - after vowing to leave city politics - decided to try to hold the seat that he'd decided to vacate in order to run for mayor which he was unable to do because of the public financing system that he'd supported (whew!).
Marty in the Middle (of everything) wouldn't announce until well into the July - a move that's still a bit baffling. The Almighty Alcalde was either incredibly arrogant or was waiting to see if there were some other opportunities to "make some money" as he indicated he would like to do on 770 KKOB's morning show with Bob Clark last Friday morning.
After Marty lowered himself to actually enter the race, the early polls were showing that Marty's numbers were in the mid 40's - meaning that if the race were held then, the Almighty Alcalde would retain his throne on the 11th floor. The flip side was that if an incumbent starts at 46%, the only direction for them to go is down.
A little over a week ago, we all found out that down is exactly where he went falling to 26% in the most recent Journal poll (Subscription). Richard Romero trailed Chavez by a razor thin margin of 2 percentage points and R.J. Berry lead by 5 points.
Prior to Labor Day, one would be hard pressed to notice that there was a mayor's race. Sure... the three major candidates were out at forums but no one who wasn't a political junkie had any idea there was a mayor's race underway.
[Sidebar]September saw the mayor's race jump out of the shadows. The mail began, radio and TV hit the air, and the dreaded autodialers started pestering anyone with a phone. All of the candidates began to make their various cases - both positive and negative - the two challengers understandably tried to make the case that Marty wasn't the man for the mayor's office.
Ok, Ok... R.J. Berry and Richard Romero were out at community forums. In most cases, The Almighty Alcalde was being kept in a secure location.
[End Sidebar]
Marty aimed his vitriol on R.J. Berry until late in the campaign when he belatedly targeted Romero. The Almighty Alcalde realized that there's a real chance that he may not even be part of a runoff unless he could pull some liberal Ds away from Romero.
That's where we stand today... election day. By now you've heard and read more than you probably want to have heard and read. We would hope that you would have formed an opinion of who you support for mayor.
Both R.J. Berry and Richard Romero have run honorable campaigns. Marty has run his campaign the way he has increasingly run the city - with half-truths, spin, and outright lies. He even blatantly used his police department for political gain.
Martin Chavez's three terms in office have been a study in the creation of a tyrant. Each year spent occupying the city's mayoral throne has made The Almighty Alcalde more arrogant, more vindictive, and more tyrannical.
We have long believed that the mayoral race will be decided by Republicans. Republicans have been responsible for each of The Almighty Alcalde's elections and so they will be responsible for the outcome of this election.
Richard Romero has been an honorable candidate but his ties to the far left Eli Lee wing of the Democratic party is more than just a little concerning and means that should he end up in a runoff with Chavez many Republicans would vote as they have in the past.
R.J. Berry is an honest man. He has run his campaign with honor and dignity - even in the face of blistering personal attacks from The Almighty Alcalde. In our opinion, Berry is the best candidate to replace the Tyrant of the 11th Floor and once again make city government of the people, by the people, and for the people.
Oct 3, 2009
Election Predictions
Politics is one of the great American spectator sports. Not unlike other sports, everyone has an opinion and everyone has a prediction.
We've been busy polling issues, Marty's scandals, and candidates for months now. But with the election speeding our way, we thought it'd be fun to get your opinion - your prediction - of just who's gonna win our little city contest.
We'll be giving you our predictions - which are currently sealed in a Mayonnaise jar on Funkenwagnals porch - Tuesday night at 7:00pm. Use the polls below to tell us what you think.
We're not bothering with council districts 1, 7, or 9 because Ken "I love Marty" Sanchez doesn't have an opponent, Mike Cook in District 7 only faces write-in David Green, and Councilor Harris faces left of Mao socialist David Barbour whose position on the ballot is the only thing that gives him a better shot at winning than David Green has over in District 7.
Have fun with your predictions!
We've been busy polling issues, Marty's scandals, and candidates for months now. But with the election speeding our way, we thought it'd be fun to get your opinion - your prediction - of just who's gonna win our little city contest.
We'll be giving you our predictions - which are currently sealed in a Mayonnaise jar on Funkenwagnals porch - Tuesday night at 7:00pm. Use the polls below to tell us what you think.
We're not bothering with council districts 1, 7, or 9 because Ken "I love Marty" Sanchez doesn't have an opponent, Mike Cook in District 7 only faces write-in David Green, and Councilor Harris faces left of Mao socialist David Barbour whose position on the ballot is the only thing that gives him a better shot at winning than David Green has over in District 7.
Have fun with your predictions!
Oct 1, 2009
Cozy Relationship Canceled
Dealer-gate seems to be getting somewhat more intriguing. It turns out that the 4th Street used car and illegal recreational pharmaceuticals dealer and APD have a history. According to our Eyes, the dealership was contracted by the department to provide vehicles to the SID and IMPACT units. Yesterday, that cozy little contract was canceled after news of the burned investigation broke.
It's not unusual for APD to purchase vehicles from used car dealers particularly for units like SID and IMPACT where driving around in Ford Crown Victorias wouldn't exactly be low profile. In the past, the department would purchase their vehicles from Budget. The vehicles usually had some kind of warranty, were only a few years old, and had been maintained by the company. It was a good deal for the city and for Budget.
We don't know when the still unnamed dealer was extended the contract, but it does explain the ties of two APD officers to the dealership. According to our Eyes, the allegations against Ron Olivas and Brad Ahrensfield claim that Olivas tipped off Ahrensfield who relayed the information to a relative that worked at the dealership. Our Eyes tell us that the relative in question was allegedly Ahrensfield's son.
All of this makes a lot more sense now that there seems to have been a two way relationship between APD and the used car dealer. Otherwise, why would Olivas feel compelled to burn an FBI investigation knowing that if caught he could end up in a set of handcuffs.
It looks like there's more to this than a couple of officers tipping off an alleged drug dealer and burning an FBI investigation. For one thing it never looks good when a law enforcement agency has a cozy little relationship with the criminals they are supposed to be chasing.
It's not unusual for APD to purchase vehicles from used car dealers particularly for units like SID and IMPACT where driving around in Ford Crown Victorias wouldn't exactly be low profile. In the past, the department would purchase their vehicles from Budget. The vehicles usually had some kind of warranty, were only a few years old, and had been maintained by the company. It was a good deal for the city and for Budget.
We don't know when the still unnamed dealer was extended the contract, but it does explain the ties of two APD officers to the dealership. According to our Eyes, the allegations against Ron Olivas and Brad Ahrensfield claim that Olivas tipped off Ahrensfield who relayed the information to a relative that worked at the dealership. Our Eyes tell us that the relative in question was allegedly Ahrensfield's son.
All of this makes a lot more sense now that there seems to have been a two way relationship between APD and the used car dealer. Otherwise, why would Olivas feel compelled to burn an FBI investigation knowing that if caught he could end up in a set of handcuffs.
It looks like there's more to this than a couple of officers tipping off an alleged drug dealer and burning an FBI investigation. For one thing it never looks good when a law enforcement agency has a cozy little relationship with the criminals they are supposed to be chasing.
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