Eye Predicts

It's been a crazy month for Albuquerque political junkies. Now that the polls are closed we'll put our prognostication skills to the test.

Bond Issues, Quarter Cent and Propositions
As usual all of the bond issues will pass with ease. There simply wasn't any organized opposition to any of them and we'd be shocked if any of them even came close to defeat.

The 1/4 Cent Transportation Tax will pass - but it'll be closer than any of the bond questions (63% For, 37% Against). This thing as been on the books for 10 years and was sold to the public as necessity if the city wants to have roads, bike paths, and buses. In truth this is supplantation tax that shifts the burden to provide these transportation infrastructure needs from the existing general fund to a dedicated tax. The funds originally used for transportation infrastructure purposes become available for other non-transportation uses. Like the public safety tax, it's a tax increase wrapped in a desirable lie.

All of the charter amendment propositions will pass with the exception of Proposition 2. The general theme of the propositions is to reduce mayoral authority. Prop 2, makes it possible for an "independent" commission to set salaries for the mayor and councilors without asking for voter approval. This ain't gonna happen.

Voters have consistently rebuffed any attempt to pay councilors more. As a result, they'll reject Prop 2 for no other reason than it'll take voters out of the loop.

Proposition 8 probably shouldn't pass but it will. Prop 8 sets up the governmental equivalent of a mayor/council mediation board. This really won't work because historically fights between the mayor (and by mayor we mean The Almighty Alcalde) have involved gray areas in the city charter. Arbitration boards simply cannot make legal decisions. So... We'll have a committee that can't arbitrate because they don't have the authority to interpret the charter - which means the case will end up in court where it ought to be anyway.

District 1
Ken Sanchez - 87%

Councilor Sanchez is the only person on the ballot in District 1 - there's not even a write-in. He'll lose few points due to under votes, jokers who write-in Mickey Mouse, and a few folks who are still mad at him for helping The Almighty Alcalde.

District 3
Isaac Benton - 48%
Alan Armijo - 38%

Admittedly we haven't been watching this race all that closely, but given name ID alone Armijo should be able to make it a close race. We just don't think that there's been enough of a case made to fire the incumbent and District 3 has changed significantly since Alan Armijo last graced the council chambers as a council member.

District 5
Dan Lewis - 45%
Michael Cadigan - 48%

This is one of those that could be considered too close to call. But despite running a very good campaign, working hard and making a very good case to the voters that Cadigan should be removed - it's hard to dump an incumbent in just a few months time. Dan Lewis may not win this one, but he's shown himself to be a hard working, talented candidate. He'll be hard to beat in his next campaign.

District 7
Michael Cook - 69%
David Green (Write-in) - 5%

Green failed to turn in the required Declaration of Candidacy August, 11th. Frankly, it's almost impossible to wage a successful write-in campaign without significant funding - funding that Green didn't have.

District 9
David Barbour - 23%
Don Harris - 65%

Harris will cruise to victory in this one. Being on the ballot won't help Barbour primarily because his simply doesn't fit the district. We wouldn't at all be surprised if Councilor Harris wins by an even greater margin.

The Race for Mayor
R.J. Berry - 41%
Richard Romero - 33%
Martin J. Chavez - 22%

You won't see a large under vote in this one. This is the reason that most people are headed to the polls. Ultimately, we think Berry will reach the magic 40% and avoid a runoff. Marty will have ended up taking votes from Romero rather than the other way around - ultimately denying his fellow Romero a chance at a runoff.

So there they are... We'll see how close we got in the next few hours.