The Piercing Truth

This is right from the dictionary and seems to describe Albuquerque, Berry and Schultz. Fascism (f ash ,izem) noun An authoritarian right wing system of government and/or social organization. (in general use) extreme right wing, authoritarian, chauvinistic and/or intolerant views or practices. Fascism tends to include a belief in the supremacy of one group over another, national, ethnic, especially social strata or monetarily; a contempt for democracy, an insistence on obedience to a powerful leader, and a strong demagogic approach. Compliments of one of our Eyes

Oct 6, 2009

Eye Predicts

It's been a crazy month for Albuquerque political junkies. Now that the polls are closed we'll put our prognostication skills to the test.

Bond Issues, Quarter Cent and Propositions
As usual all of the bond issues will pass with ease. There simply wasn't any organized opposition to any of them and we'd be shocked if any of them even came close to defeat.

The 1/4 Cent Transportation Tax will pass - but it'll be closer than any of the bond questions (63% For, 37% Against). This thing as been on the books for 10 years and was sold to the public as necessity if the city wants to have roads, bike paths, and buses. In truth this is supplantation tax that shifts the burden to provide these transportation infrastructure needs from the existing general fund to a dedicated tax. The funds originally used for transportation infrastructure purposes become available for other non-transportation uses. Like the public safety tax, it's a tax increase wrapped in a desirable lie.

All of the charter amendment propositions will pass with the exception of Proposition 2. The general theme of the propositions is to reduce mayoral authority. Prop 2, makes it possible for an "independent" commission to set salaries for the mayor and councilors without asking for voter approval. This ain't gonna happen.

Voters have consistently rebuffed any attempt to pay councilors more. As a result, they'll reject Prop 2 for no other reason than it'll take voters out of the loop.

Proposition 8 probably shouldn't pass but it will. Prop 8 sets up the governmental equivalent of a mayor/council mediation board. This really won't work because historically fights between the mayor (and by mayor we mean The Almighty Alcalde) have involved gray areas in the city charter. Arbitration boards simply cannot make legal decisions. So... We'll have a committee that can't arbitrate because they don't have the authority to interpret the charter - which means the case will end up in court where it ought to be anyway.

District 1
Ken Sanchez - 87%

Councilor Sanchez is the only person on the ballot in District 1 - there's not even a write-in. He'll lose few points due to under votes, jokers who write-in Mickey Mouse, and a few folks who are still mad at him for helping The Almighty Alcalde.

District 3
Isaac Benton - 48%
Alan Armijo - 38%

Admittedly we haven't been watching this race all that closely, but given name ID alone Armijo should be able to make it a close race. We just don't think that there's been enough of a case made to fire the incumbent and District 3 has changed significantly since Alan Armijo last graced the council chambers as a council member.

District 5
Dan Lewis - 45%
Michael Cadigan - 48%

This is one of those that could be considered too close to call. But despite running a very good campaign, working hard and making a very good case to the voters that Cadigan should be removed - it's hard to dump an incumbent in just a few months time. Dan Lewis may not win this one, but he's shown himself to be a hard working, talented candidate. He'll be hard to beat in his next campaign.

District 7
Michael Cook - 69%
David Green (Write-in) - 5%

Green failed to turn in the required Declaration of Candidacy August, 11th. Frankly, it's almost impossible to wage a successful write-in campaign without significant funding - funding that Green didn't have.

District 9
David Barbour - 23%
Don Harris - 65%

Harris will cruise to victory in this one. Being on the ballot won't help Barbour primarily because his simply doesn't fit the district. We wouldn't at all be surprised if Councilor Harris wins by an even greater margin.

The Race for Mayor
R.J. Berry - 41%
Richard Romero - 33%
Martin J. Chavez - 22%

You won't see a large under vote in this one. This is the reason that most people are headed to the polls. Ultimately, we think Berry will reach the magic 40% and avoid a runoff. Marty will have ended up taking votes from Romero rather than the other way around - ultimately denying his fellow Romero a chance at a runoff.

So there they are... We'll see how close we got in the next few hours.

19 comments:

Mr. Bill said...

No way will Berry get %40. But Marty will come in 3rd.

Anonymous said...

I hope Louie Sanchez gets the boot right behind Mayor Marty! Two pieces of poop that need to be flushed.

Anonymous said...

I hope your predictions are correct and I hope RJ BErry is smart enough not to give Darren White the chief job.

Anonymous said...

To the 11th and 5th floor staff...


Na na na na ... na na na na... hey hey hey gooodbyeeeeeeeee

hey castro, you arent sooo quick to post any smart ass remarks now are you?

marty- i hear there is a spot at the dog pound!

ray--- two words... CROSSING GUARD!

Anonymous said...

FOr once your polls were correct EYE. Wow. Berry 43%, Chavez 36%, Romero 22%. I pray Berry leads us in the right direction. Good job EYE.

Anonymous said...

Napoleon's reign is over. Now it's time to sweep these corrupt A-holes outta here. Bye bye Schultz and all the other trash. It's a good thing they all packed up early...

Anonymous said...

Wow!!! Yeah!!! and double Yeah!!!!!

Anybody but marty farty and indeed
marty farty was defeated tonight
with RJ clearly over 40%

yeah!

Romero, that was a great campaign and feel proud!

Marty Farty you got voted out and no run off!

So, when you believed your campaign easy to win in a run off, another candidate went over 40%!

A candidate who is a first time candidate! Way to go Romero and RJ Berry because believe it that a win for RJ is a win for Albuquerque!

Anonymous said...

Mayor R.J. Berry it’s time to clean up the police department and bring back its integrity. Get rid of Chief Shultz, Chief Callaway, Chief McCabe, and that cheese eating no good piece of crap Pete Denali.

Anonymous said...

The APOA might not have selected the right choice to back, but tonight's election was the right choice for the City! Time to clean up the City and the APD!

Bye, bye,
bye, bye
bye, bye
bye, bye
bye, bye marty farty!

Anonymous said...

See ya Marty Chavez. Now when you drink, Chief Schultz and Sgt Sanchez will not be able to get you off the hook!!!!

I'd say you will be busted for DUI within 6 months the way you frequent bars!

Anonymous said...

Lets see how long it takes Ray Schultz to go into Berry's camp. My guess, not long.

Anonymous said...

Mayor Berry the Albuquerque Police Officers Association (APOA) may have endorsed Marty Chavez but I can assure you that’s membership did not.

Anonymous said...

Eye, this is great! Keep us posted about everything. Finally, this blog can focus on how great Albuquerque is with new leadership!

I guess the voters sent Marty Farty a loud and clear message tonight that though he corrupted the courts and overturned term limits, that the people spoke via their votes!

Anonymous said...

Thank you Mr. Bill because yeah!!!! Romero ran a great campaign and is a great person, too!

I am happy with either Romero or RJ Berry!

We defeated the evil, tyrannt Martin Chavez tonight! Thank you Mr. Bill!

This cite rocks
Go Mr. Bill!
Romero ran a great campaign and yeah for RJ Berry! Women have been uplifted tonight!

Anonymous said...

Let's take a look back in just one month's time as to how Martin Chavez went from a 40% to a 35%.

First, Bode Aviation came back when
Bode won their lawsuit in court and when Martin Chavez appealed the decision... Bode Aviation amended their original complaint to add extortion charges.

Second, David Young in APD story went national. People from all over read about APD and corruption
which didn't sound good at all after a recent story of the 11 West Mesa murders. Americas Most Wanted aired the show on the West Mesa murders.

Third, GE Aircraft filed bankruptcy.

What else?

Anonymous said...

On the Eye poll, only 14% thought Romero would win. The previous Eye Poll had Romero at 21% to 22% for people that would vote for Romero. Romero was the underdog from the beginning, so like so many hoping he would be, "Mind that Bird," Romero received 21%. The Journal poll showed Romero at 24%. Romero's highlight came after the Channel 4 news when Romero polled at a 52%. Voters were being told that if there was a run off between Romero and Chavez that Chavez would pull in the Republican vote because Romero was "too liberal." Many, people decided to vote for change, so the 3% over 40% came from need to just get new leadership.

Why RJ Berry over Romero and why not Romero? Last month, there were several townhall meetings that focused on questioning President Obama's healthcare plan for the uninsured. This rallied Republican support against the plan which probably accounts for Chavez's low Journal Poll.

Senator Udall (Democrat) who well liked by many also took a pounding at the Townhall meetings.

The Democrats split between Martin and Romero. Romero was the underdog from the start in having to also deal with the Healthcare Townhall meetings which seemed to rally strong Republican opposition.

The Eye Poll of who will you vote for gave Romero a 22% to 21% votes.
This was during the last week of September. The Eye Poll had Romero at 21% to 22%.

Albuquerque voters are lucky to have avoided a run-off between any candidate and Martin Chavez. Martin Chavez was counting on the run-off to win his fourth term as Mayor.

Way to Go Romero and way to go RJ Berry! I am happy that anybody but Marty Farty is Mayor!

Anonymous said...

Sgt Louie Sanchez is a worthless tool. I hope he gets the boot too!!!

Anonymous said...

Where is the 5th floor, Joey, union "thugs" (you guys still aint BigTime yet), Marty campaigners on here? Suddenly they went quiet. That candle has gone out, and been replaced by the light of day. Good luck to Mayor-elect Berry sorting the city and APD out. We have faith in you. As for the rest, pack your bags and pick up an application for NAMBLA on the way out! Boogie man, go get'em.

Anonymous said...

"Sgt Louie Sanchez is a worthless tool. I hope he gets the boot too!!!"

While we're on the subject of "Louies", send Sgt Armijo / Father Of The Year packing.